From left to right: Not Gonna Win, Not Gonna Win, Not Gonna Win, Not Gonna Win, Not Gonna Win, Not Gonna Win,and Not Gonna Win. Not pictured: Not Gonna Win, Not Gonna Win. |
Of course, it's these bozos: the Candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination for President of the United States. As a group, they're uninformed, disingenuous, and vile. Individually, they're hilarious. Somehow, once the dust of the nomination process settles, one of them will earn 45% of the national vote by virtue of being the official pick. Good grief.
Now, let's start with the general thesis statement of the Republican Party of 2011-2012: they absolutely, positively must win the election in 2012. Or more precisely, Barack Obama must lose. This is the top priority of the GOP, more than fixing the economy, more than corralling the deficit, more than creating the jobs so many congressmen promised to deliver when they were elected in the 2010 mid-terms. Is this a crazy bit of political paranoia? Well... no.
Now, let's set aside whether or not you think this is a sound strategy in the short term (or even in the long term). If this is the Republican mission, it would stand to reason that the party would be trying to figure out who has the best chance of defeating President Obama this November.
This is not what the Republicans have been doing.
First, let's look at some data-- specifically at head-to-head polls pitting Obama vs. each Republican candidate. (I'm reasonably sure the data are recent, but the lack of dates on the main page is annoying) The results are interesting: when putting Obama up against a "generic" Republican, only one poll shows a result outside of the margin of error. So, President Obama is vulnerable. In the head-to-head matchups, however, only one candidate comes close to the President: Mitt Romney. So, it would stand to reason that Romney has a lot of Republican support, right?
You might ask yourself: how is a prospective Republican primary voter to choose between so many... um... attractive candidates? How silly a question! You can just watch one of the fifty BILLION debates the candidates have attended.
Okay, I'm exaggerating. In reality, there have been around twenty debates featuring a relevant swath of candidates since May of last year. That excludes the handful of "Lincoln-Douglas" style debates that have taken place featuring only two candidates per. With all the debating going on, surely the percentage of undecided voters has nose-dived, right?
Not so much. Okay, grain of salt; it was difficult for me to find polling data that included undecided voters, and went back far enough to make it a meaningful look. However! Last June, a poll of GOP voters in South Carolina returned a 9% undecided rate. The same poll on January 7... returned a 9% undecided rate. Decisive! (But seriously, if anyone finds better data, I'd love to look at it, because I am a nerd.)
Meanwhile, the top of the list keeps shifting around, with every candidate having their day in the sun (well, except for Huntsman and Johnson, but still). I think if you took them in order of peak, it would go something like: Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and now, Santorum, with Paul poised to catch the next big wave (thanks in part to Kelly Clarkson). Yes, the Republicans can't quite up and commit to the one person who has a chance at fulfilling that #1 Republican goal, so they keep desperately turning over rocks in the hopes that the Perfect Candidate will emerge. Of course, if all those things creeping around under rocks could stand the sunlight to begin with, they wouldn't be under rocks. So, what I'm trying to say is, good luck with that, Republicans!
The theater of it all is excellent, though, and that makes it Best. The people themselves? Ugh. Worst. And that's how you become the Best/Worst of 2011.
This is not what the Republicans have been doing.
First, let's look at some data-- specifically at head-to-head polls pitting Obama vs. each Republican candidate. (I'm reasonably sure the data are recent, but the lack of dates on the main page is annoying) The results are interesting: when putting Obama up against a "generic" Republican, only one poll shows a result outside of the margin of error. So, President Obama is vulnerable. In the head-to-head matchups, however, only one candidate comes close to the President: Mitt Romney. So, it would stand to reason that Romney has a lot of Republican support, right?
Chart cribbed from here. |
Yup, he's only recently started polling above 30%. The field breaks down as such:
- Gary Johnson: Ha! Just kidding. I only bring him up because a) he's an ex-New Mexico governor, and b) his leaving the Republican Party to run as a Libertarian is a double-fuck-off to the GOP, as the polls show that if he made a bid for New Mexico's open Senate seat, he'd have the edge over presumptive Dem. candidate Martin Heinrich.
- Herman Cain: Candidacy endorsed by God. Token black candidate, also token non-politician candidate. Centered campaign around insane "9-9-9" plan that included a national sales tax, and would have shifted a great deal of America's tax burden to the poor. Dropped out due to persisten sexual harassment facts, not because of his basic lack of economic, or foreign policy bonafides.
- Jon Hunstman: Reasonably non-crazy, at least in this group. Served as an Ambassador for President Obama, which makes him about as attractive to the Republican base as John Wayne Gacy.
- Michelle Bachmann: Candidacy endorsed by God. Won a straw poll in Iowa early on, then faded and recently dropped out. Terrified of teh gays, also of the truth. Unable to be photographed without revealing crazy eyes.
- Rick Perry: Candidacy endorsed by God. Initial announcement of campaign received with excitement, until he was revealed to be a less eloquent version of George W. Bush. Released a video that became one of the most hated YouTube videos of 2011.Thinks you absolutely should be executed, no matter what the so-called-facts say.
- Ron Paul: Wants to pretty much junk the Federal budget. Been around long enough that previously-unpalatable libertarian beliefs now seem sane. Recent surge in polls has uncovered super-racist newsletters he once wrote. Possible stealth religious agenda?
- Newt Gingrich: Previous indiscretions wiped away now that he's found God. Partially directly responsible for poisonous attitude in Washington, from his previous tenure as Speaker of the House. Has had his campaign declared dead at least once.
- Rick Santorum: Current de facto choice of extremist Christians who can't bring themselves to vote for a Mormon. Even more terrified of teh gays than Bachman is, and that's saying something. Has publicly stated that he wants to place Biblical laws over the U.S. Constitution. IMPORTANT: Do not Google this man's name.
- Mitt Romney: Best hair of the lot. Conservative credentials bolstered by years helping corporations outsource jobs. Conservative credentials severely impaired by signing Massachusetts Health Care law that formed the basis of the Hated Obamacare. Mormonism scares off evangelicals. Only candidate currently polling well in head-to-head matchup with President Obama.
"Quick! Let's get in some pandering before the debate begins!" |
Not so much. Okay, grain of salt; it was difficult for me to find polling data that included undecided voters, and went back far enough to make it a meaningful look. However! Last June, a poll of GOP voters in South Carolina returned a 9% undecided rate. The same poll on January 7... returned a 9% undecided rate. Decisive! (But seriously, if anyone finds better data, I'd love to look at it, because I am a nerd.)
Meanwhile, the top of the list keeps shifting around, with every candidate having their day in the sun (well, except for Huntsman and Johnson, but still). I think if you took them in order of peak, it would go something like: Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and now, Santorum, with Paul poised to catch the next big wave (thanks in part to Kelly Clarkson). Yes, the Republicans can't quite up and commit to the one person who has a chance at fulfilling that #1 Republican goal, so they keep desperately turning over rocks in the hopes that the Perfect Candidate will emerge. Of course, if all those things creeping around under rocks could stand the sunlight to begin with, they wouldn't be under rocks. So, what I'm trying to say is, good luck with that, Republicans!
There's still time... |
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